Despite a pullback from highs it appears the current market reaction to heightened uncertainty appears to be a “normal” pullback. Given the market's typical aversion to uncertainty, we view the recent basing pattern (sideways choppiness) as a potential positive. Check out this episode of Charts that Matter to know why.
President Trump’s return to office was marked by a ‘flurry’ of activity, where he delivered nearly 100 executive orders on Day One of his second term. As expected, Trump swiftly reversed many of the Biden-era policies and advanced many of his campaign pledges on immigration and border control, trade and tariffs, energy policy, the federal workforce, and other key priorities. Given the significant impact these executive orders can have on the economy and the financial markets, here are the top five questions we’ve been receiving after President Trump’s active first weeks.
US equities were higher in Q4, with the S&P 500 delivering a 2.4% return. One major highlight was that all 4 quarters were positive--the last time that happened was in 2021, and the markets ended the year with its 5th straight positive quarter. The quarterly return was the most muted of the four quarters. November delivered almost a 6% return—the best month of the year. The month was fueled by a 2.5% gain on November 6--following a smooth and uncontested election—the strongest post-election day performance dating back to 1928.
As we kick off 2025, it’s important to reflect on the success of 2024. Overall, there is much to appreciate, but also some risks to monitor as sentiment and positioning have become one-sided and divergences are beginning to emerge with rotation and movement beneath the surface.
The Federal Reserve's recent actions and communications affect both the markets and economy, especially as we head into 2025. Following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference stocks plunged with the S&P 500 declining three percent—it’s worst day since August. Let me break down the key points to help provide perspective.
As we reflect on 2024, it's worth noting how many anticipated challenges failed to materialize. Despite widespread concerns about recession, market downturns, and political instability, markets demonstrated remarkable resilience. Looking ahead to 2025, the focus shifts from extremes to equilibrium.