After delivering record performance through the first six months of the year, the market did not take a breather and continued its upward trend. After delivering 31 record highs and a 15% return through June, the S&P 500 Index added a 6% return and 12 more record highs during the third quarter. Behind the strong quarterly return is a bit of data to unpack, so let’s start with September...
In episode 11 of charts that matter I discussed the recent Federal Reserve cut to interest rates and the longer-term rate outlook. The key theme was “don’t be too comfortable being comfortable in cash.” Meaning that the outlook for rates on savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and money market funds is likely lower. In my opinion, investors face a potential opportunity cost of holding excess cash as the Fed continues to lower interest rates.
As everyone settles into their post-Labor Day routines, it’s a good time for investors to reflect on markets and review their financial plans for the rest of the year. August began with the sharpest market declines in two years, but major indices rebounded and the S&P 500 finished the month near its all-time high. Inflation remains on a downward trajectory and the broader economy appears strong. So while September is beginning with additional market uncertainty, it’s important for investors to maintain perspective.
Financial markets have felt more fragile recently with investors concerned about the economy and the possibility that the Fed may be behind on cutting rates. While there is heightened market uncertainty, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are still up 13%, 12%, and 6% with dividends this year. This is a reminder that while market swings are never pleasant, looking past short-term volatility is the best way for investors to stay focused on their goals. This video explains Carry Trades - an unknown strategy to the novice investor - until the Yen Carry Trade was cited as a factor in the August market sell-off.
The Sahm rule predicts the onset of recessions based on the trend in unemployment. Developed by former Federal Reserve and White House economist Claudia Sahm, it signals the onset of a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point in the past year.
To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, shifts in the stock market often occur “gradually, then suddenly.” Over the past month, the market has rotated from large cap technology stocks to small caps and other sectors. Following the latest jobs report, however, stocks experienced a sharp pullback due to concerns over the timing of Fed rate cuts, a weakening labor market, and tech earnings. Financial markets are on edge as investors adjust to a potentially changing economic landscape.