Insightful Ideas

Market sentiment has turned cautious as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices show negative performance year-to-date. While trade tensions dominate headlines, other factors including declining consumer sentiment, elevated inflation readings, public sector job reductions, and various economic indicators have contributed to market anxiety. With recession concerns resurfacing and President Trump acknowledging their possibility, investors seek guidance on maintaining perspective during these uncertain times.

Gold prices hit another record high last week following President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats—it’s ninth peak so far this year. Gold is a commodity like no other. In contrast to other hard assets, gold plays a unique role in the global monetary system—simply put, gold is perceived as money.

Despite a pullback from highs it appears the current market reaction to heightened uncertainty appears to be a “normal” pullback. Given the market's typical aversion to uncertainty, we view the recent basing pattern (sideways choppiness) as a potential positive. Check out this episode of Charts that Matter to know why.

President Trump’s return to office was marked by a ‘flurry’ of activity, where he delivered nearly 100 executive orders on Day One of his second term. As expected, Trump swiftly reversed many of the Biden-era policies and advanced many of his campaign pledges on immigration and border control, trade and tariffs, energy policy, the federal workforce, and other key priorities. Given the significant impact these executive orders can have on the economy and the financial markets, here are the top five questions we’ve been receiving after President Trump’s active first weeks.

US equities were higher in Q4, with the S&P 500 delivering a 2.4% return. One major highlight was that all 4 quarters were positive--the last time that happened was in 2021, and the markets ended the year with its 5th straight positive quarter. The quarterly return was the most muted of the four quarters. November delivered almost a 6% return—the best month of the year. The month was fueled by a 2.5% gain on November 6--following a smooth and uncontested election—the strongest post-election day performance dating back to 1928.

As we kick off 2025, it’s important to reflect on the success of 2024. Overall, there is much to appreciate, but also some risks to monitor as sentiment and positioning have become one-sided and divergences are beginning to emerge with rotation and movement beneath the surface.